I am amazed at some of the claims made by the article talking about Richard Watson’s new book in Today’s Sunday Herald Sun on page 100-101 (vic). Many of his claims seem to be made without any common sense of the timeframes required for common things to become obsolete. Having not read the book, but by the wording of the article which appears to sum up the main keypoints (using a table with columns for ‘goodbye:’ and ‘hello to:’ and rows for years) makes one question what actual research was done to come to some of these strange claims.
Watson reckons that by 2010, the computer mouse will be obsolete. That’s 11 months away! There is no way that every computer’s mouse will be replaced in that short period of time - and older computers that people still use (eg those using the ps/2 connection) most likely won’t support any updated input device.
We’ll also apparently be saying hello to ‘wearable computers’ by 2010. I don’t know where he’s been, but they’re been around for years, although not until recently in the mainstream. Ipod buttoned clothing? Mp3/camera sunglasses? Calculator wristwatch anyone?
Perhaps the wording in the article is a bit overgeneralised, but it continues. Some other impossibilities include no ‘free parking’ by 2015 (meaning I can’t pull off the road in the middle of nowhere), no unfenced beaches by 2020 (Even in WA?), and apparently desktop computers won’t be used by 2020 (we’ll all suddently throw ours out next decade?). We’ll be saying hello to offshore prisons by 2025 (um, why was Australia initially colonised? [note: it isn't a prison country anymore]), virtual holidays in 2030 (the use of the word virtual implies a 3D world, such as that of a video game or any social media; perhaps he means holidays by way of temporary sensory replacement), and video wallpaper by 2035 (we have been able to project video onto a wall for over a century; the technology implied here [durable paper thin displays] is more likely to be used for the invisibility cloaks he references in 2045).
Most absurdly, he claims also that by January 2059, ‘petrol engine cars will be extinct’. Petrol engined cars will never be extinct. We will have more energy efficient vehicles in the future, which may replace the majority of current automotive solutions. However, petrol engined cars will forever be with us, even if it is just the enthusiasts or collectors, that will be keeping them running as long as the need for stylish automobility continues.
Sure many of the technologies mentioned either already currently exist or will in the future, but the timeframes mentioned are not well founded. Perhaps it could be that the article/book is geared towards city life, where the majority of the current world population resides. My criticisms might sound a bit harsh, but it doesn’t help that the article states no author, and concludes with the price of the book, as though it’s a paid advertisement. Perhaps I should read the book 